RecruitingOBSERVATIONAL

PrognostICate- Study:Prognostication of ICU- and Ventilator- Days Over the Next Years Until 2040

This study, called "Prognosticate," is trying to accurately guess how long patients might stay in intensive care units (ICU) and how long they might need breathing machines (ventilators) in the future. Researchers are looking at old patient information from ICUs across the globe, from 2005 to 2023, along with population data. They use special computer models to make predictions for the next few years, all the way up to 2040. They're also looking at different groups of people, like men and women, different age groups, and whether they were admitted for medical reasons or surgery. The main goal is to help hospitals and healthcare leaders plan better, so they can make sure there are enough ICU beds and ventilators available for everyone who needs them in the future.

At a glance

Status

Recruiting

Sponsor

University Hospital of Cologne

Enrolment target

10,000,000

Start

01 Mar 2024

Estimated completion

01 Jun 2025

ICU Admission

What is this study about?

Imagine hospitals knowing exactly how many intensive care unit (ICU) beds and special breathing machines (called ventilators) they'll need in ten or twenty years' time. That's what the "Prognosticate" study is trying to help with! Our healthcare system faces challenges like a growing number of older people and new medical treatments, which both mean more people might need intensive care. Planning for this can be tricky because these resources are limited.

This study isn't about treating patients directly or testing new medicines. Instead, it's like a big detective project, looking back at lots of information from ICUs all over the world. Researchers are gathering patient details from as far back as 2005 right up to last year (2023). They're especially interested in how long people stayed in the ICU and how long they needed a ventilator. They're also looking at information about different groups of patients, such as men and women, people of different ages, and whether they were admitted for a medical problem or for surgery.

By using clever computer programs and different prediction methods, the study aims to create a trustworthy picture of what ICU needs might look like in the future, up to the year 2040. The ultimate goal is to give this important information to the people who make big decisions in healthcare. This way, they can better plan and make sure that hospitals have the right amount of beds and equipment ready for anyone who needs critical care in the years to come.

Key takeaways

The study helps hospitals plan for future intensive care needs.
It uses past patient data from 2005-2023, not new patients.
The goal is to predict ICU bed and ventilator needs until 2040.
It helps healthcare leaders make important decisions about resources.
No direct patient participation or new treatments are involved.

Who may be eligible?

This study does not involve patients directly, so there's no need to sign up or join. Instead, the researchers are looking at existing, anonymous information that has already been collected from hospitals.

They are interested in data from any patient who was admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) between the years 2005 and 2023.

They will not be looking at information from patients who were not admitted to an ICU, or if their stay in the ICU was for less than 4 hours.

Could this study suit you?

Answer these quick questions to see if you may be eligible. This is a guide only — the research team makes the final call.

Are you looking to join a new clinical study?
Do you want to test new medicines or treatments?
Are you hoping for direct medical recommendations based on this study?
Did you have an ICU admission of less than 4 hours between 2005-2023?

Answer every question to see your result.

What does participation involve?

This study does not involve direct participation from people. It is a 'retrospective' study, which means researchers are looking back at information that has already been collected from hospital records. You will not be asked to do anything, visit a clinic, take medication, or have any follow-up appointments related to this study. Your personal information is not being used.

Potential risks and benefits

There are no direct risks to individuals because this study uses existing, anonymised hospital data and does not involve direct patient contact or treatment. Similarly, there are no direct benefits to individual patients. The main benefit is to healthcare systems worldwide by providing valuable insights that can help plan for future intensive care needs, potentially leading to better resource allocation and improved patient care in the long run. As this study does not involve individual participation, there is no need to consider withdrawing.

Locations (1)

Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine
Verified postcode
Cologne, Germany· Recruiting

Common questions

What is the main goal of this study?

The study aims to predict how many ICU beds and ventilators will be needed in hospitals around the world by the year 2040, so healthcare leaders can plan ahead.

Does this study involve new treatments or medicines?

No, this study does not test any new treatments or medicines. It is analysing existing information from hospital records.

Who is involved in this study?

The study looks at information from past patients who were in an intensive care unit (ICU) between 2005 and 2023. No new patients are being recruited.

Will my personal information be used?

No, the study uses anonymised information, meaning any patient details are kept confidential and cannot be linked back to you personally.

How will this study help people?

By helping hospitals and healthcare systems plan better for the future, it aims to ensure there are enough vital resources like ICU beds and breathing machines for everyone who needs them.

How to find out more

Sandra Emily Stoll, DR. AP

sandraemilystoll@googlemail.com +491735697566 Official trial record

Always speak to your GP or specialist before deciding to take part in a study.